Life On The Bubble

David Poland: Weekend Estimates by Klady - 3/21/10

Weekend Estimates by Klady - 3/21/10

via www.mcnblogs.com

Ben Fritz (LA Times): 'Wimpy Kid' scores an upset, 'Bounty Hunter' solid, 'Repo Men' empty-handed

Jennifer Aniston and Jude Law were overpowered at the box office this weekend by the unlikeliest of heroes.

20th Century Fox's adaptation of the comic and book series "Diary of a Wimpy Kid" scored a surprise victory at the box office this weekend, selling a studio-estimated $21.8 million worth of tickets from Friday through Sunday, more than any other new film in the U.S. and Canada.

Walt Disney Studio's 3-D "Alice in Wonderland" was, as expected, No. 1, declining 45% on its third weekend to $34.5 million and bringing its domestic total after 17 days to a fantastic $265.8 million.

The new Jennifer Aniston-Gerard Butler romantic comedy "The Bounty Hunter," which Sony Pictures and Relativity Media paid a little over $40 million to produce, opened to a good but not great $21 million.

via latimesblogs.latimes.com

David Poland: Weekend Box Office by Klady - Alice = 4 New Films + 50%

In terms of spring numbers, it's The Passion of The Christ that Alice is dueling with and is a little behind and falling a bit faster. Still, even dropping at 40% a week from here in, $400 million domestic is in the crosshairs. Could be a little higher... could be a little lower. Regardless, mighty impressive numbers.

And huzzahs again to the former regime at Disney, which tee'd this ball up before Rich Ross took over. There was no demonstrable change in the marketing focus... only more finished footage to add to spots.

The openers didn't have a happy weekend. Not one is estimating 3x Friday estimates. And the worst estimate, Friday vs Weekend, is Remember Me, estimating less than 2.5x Friday. What this says to me is that the hardcore Twilightinas were there on Friday, voting Team Edward. The movie getting to $25m domestic would seem to be a fantasy at this point.

via www.mcnblogs.com

Ben Fritz (LA Times): 'Green Zone' marks a disappointing end to Hollywood's time in Iraq

For better or worse, Hollywood is now done with Iraq.

"Green Zone" is the last drama set to be released by a major studio related to the Iraq war, and Hollywood is undoubtedly grateful for it after the picture, directed by Paul Greengrass and starring Matt Damon, opened to just $14.5 million domestically and $9.7 million overseas.

It's the latest in a string of flops that include "Body of Lies," "The Kingdom" and "Stop-Loss." Even "The Hurt Locker," while not a major disappointment given its low budget, is the lowest- grossing best picture Oscar winner in recent history.

via latimesblogs.latimes.com

Click through for Ben Fritz's full take, plus the rundown of the weekend's top 10.

Ben Fritz (LA Times): Few headed to 'Green Zone' as 'Alice' set to dominate box office again

Universal Pictures and its financing partner Relativity Media invested about $100 million to make "Green Zone" after the benefit of tax credits, but pre-release surveys of potential moviegoers suggest the film will sell between $15 million and $20 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada this weekend. That would make it a major financial disappointment and particularly tough for Universal and Relativity coming after a weak 2009 box-office run and a recent underperformer in monster movie remake "The Wolfman."

via latimesblogs.latimes.com

Seems like I linked to Ben Fritz's last box office projection article five minutes ago, not a week ago.

Ben Fritz (LA Times): Alice headed for $100-million-plus worldwide debut

Alice is likely to find a huge box office gold at the bottom of the rabbit hole this weekend.

Walt Disney Studios' 3-D version of "Alice in Wonderland," directed by Tim Burton and starring Johnny Depp, is headed for one of the biggest winter debuts ever, people who have seen pre-release surveys of potential moviegoers say. The record-holder is director Mel Gibson's 2004 release, "The Passion of the Christ," which opened to $83.8 million.

In the U.S. and Canada, "Alice" is on track to sell more than $75 million worth of tickets from Friday through Sunday and, according to some estimates, could even exceed $90 million. 

via latimesblogs.latimes.com

David Poland: Weekend Box Office by Klady - Shuttwo-er

via www.mcnblogs.com

Ben Fritz (LA Times): 'Cop Out' slightly ahead of 'The Crazies,' but 'Shutter' is on top again

Warner Bros.' mismatched-buddy comedy "Cop Out" edged past Overture Films' horror remake "The Crazies" to be the top new movie playing nationwide this weekend, but Paramount Pictures' thriller "Shutter Island" remained No. 1 with a comfortable lead.

"Cop Out," which stars Bruce Willis and Tracy Morgan, sold a studio-estimated $18.6 million in tickets in the U.S. and Canada, while "The Crazies," a remake of the 1973 George Romero of the same name, took in $16.5 million. That's a solid opening for "The Crazies," which cost $19 million to produce, and a decent start for the $37-million "Cop Out."

via latimesblogs.latimes.com

Click through for the rest of Ben's take on the weekend (info about "Cop Out" ticket sales and Shutter Island's cume).

Ben Fritz (LA Times): 'The Crazies' could drive 'Cop Out' mad

What once looked like a clear-cut weekend at the box office has turned into a pitched battle.

Overture Films' horror remake "The Crazies" has come on strong in pre-release surveys of moviegoers recently and has a shot at challenging Warner Bros.' buddy comedy "Cop Out" to be the top new film this weekend, people familiar with the situation said. Just a couple of weeks ago, Warner's bigger-budget movie, which stars Bruce Willis and Tracy Morgan, appeared certain to prevail.

Now both movies are on track to open at $15 million to $20 million in ticket sales in the U.S. and Canada from Friday to Sunday. Both will be in competition for the top of the box-office charts with "Shutter Island," which opened to $41 million last weekend.

Every movie, however, is in danger of losing several million dollars of potential ticket sales with another major snowstorm looming in the Northeast.

via latimesblogs.latimes.com

Oy - those headline writers at the LA Times seem to be channeling Variety today. Click through to Ben Fritz's box office projections anyway, though.

What do you guys think -- will Shutter Island drop more or less than 50% this weekend? Ben says it could go either way...

Daniel Frankel (The Wrap): The H'wood Stock Exchange, With Real Bucks

Global financial services firm Cantor Fitzgerald is set to launch a real-money-driven futures trading market based on its popular Hollywood Stock Exchange multiplayer online game.

Domestic Box Office Receipt Movie Futures (DBOR for short) will offer both movie enthusiasts and serious, money-minded traders a 24-hour online market in which they will seek to predict the North American performance of movies after their first four weeks in theaters.

Acquired by Cantor Fitzgerald in 2001, the Hollywood Stock Exchange currently touts 1.7 million users, about 200,000 of whom use the site actively.

via www.thewrap.com

This is pretty cool. I dig prediction markets (RIP, Total Information Awareness Program) and am looking forward to seeing how this one plays ou.

David Poland: Weekend Box Office by Klady... Is It What Is Seems On The Surface?

The scary ting for Shutter Island is that only three movies have opened to $40m or more and grossed exactly 2x opening or less in modern box office history... and all three were First Quarter genre releases in the last two years... Friday The 13th (2009 Version), Watchmen, and Cloverfield. The question to be answered is, "Is this one of those movies, where fans and thrill seekers piled in on opening weekend and represented virtually the entire audience for the film, or is it something else?"

I am a fan of the movie, so I like to think it's something else. But word of mouth will tell that tale, not my hopes.

And by the by... there is a good chance that Valentine's Day may join that group of 2x and under films. After a 60% drop this weekend, another $25m in the bank is not assured. It will probably get there, but just by the hair of its chinny chin chin.

Avatar is the smallest dropper of all films on over 1000 screens... again. $700m domestic should happen this week and $2.5b worldwide will happen before the end of next weekend.

via www.mcnblogs.com

Meant to do this yesterday, but the weekend got away from me.

Ben Fritz (LA Times): Adults to drive big 'Shutter Island' debut

"Shutter Island," however, is firing on all cylinders and should sell between $35 million and $40 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada, according to people who have seen its prerelease tracking. That's a very healthy start given that the picture cost just under $80 million to produce. If audiences react as well as most critics have, it should continue to play well in the coming weeks.

The previous biggest opening for a movie directed by Scorsese was $26.9 million for "The Departed" in 2006. DiCaprio's high-water mark is $30 million for "Catch Me If You Can" in 2002.

Paramount is benefiting from a lack of competition this weekend, with no other movies opening nationwide. Lionsgate moved the John Travolta action film "From Paris With Love" up two weeks to Feb. 5 after Paramount in August chose this Friday for "Shutter Island."

via latimesblogs.latimes.com

Click through for particularly insightful reportage from Ben Fritz this week, including demographic info and comparisons to performance of other recent R-rated dramas.

BoxOfficeMojo: Weekend Estimates (2/12-15/2010)

BOX OFFICE MOJO - WEEKEND ESTIMATES February 12-15, 2010
http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/

Rank. Movie Title (Distributor) / Theater Count / Theater Change

  Weekend Gross | % change | Theater Average | Total Gross | Week #

1. Valentine's Day (Warner Bros.) / 3,665

  $66,855,000 | - | $18,241 | $66,855,000 | New

2. Percy Jackson (Fox) / 3,356

  $38,750,000 | - | $11,546 | $38,750,000 | New

3. The Wolfman (Universal) / 3,222

  $36,489,000 | - | $11,325 | $36,489,000 | New

4. Avatar (Fox) / 2,685 / -315

  $30,000,000 | +31.3% | $11,173 | $667,605,000 | 9

5. Dear John (Sony / Screen Gems) / 2,975 / +6

  $18,800,000 | -38.3% | $6,319 | $56,677,000 | 2

6. Tooth Fairy (Fox) / 2,748 / -470

  $7,700,000 | +16.1% | $2,802 | $43,628,000 | 4

7. From Paris with Love (Lionsgate) / 2,722 / 0

  $6,820,000 | -16.4% | $2,506 | $17,930,000 | 2

8. Edge of Darkness (Warner Bros.) / 2,615 / -451

  $5,695,000 | -16.9% | $2,178 | $37,179,000 | 3

9. Crazy Heart (Fox Searchlight) / 1,005 / +186

  $5,000,000 | +40.1% | $4,975 | $17,537,000 | 9

10. The Book of Eli (Warner Bros.) / 1,825 / -995

  $4,415,000 | -6.4% | $2,419 | $88,369,000 | 5

11. When in Rome (Buena Vista) / 2,125 / -331
  $4,207,000 | -24.2% | $1,980 | $26,802,000 | 3

12. The Blind Side (Warner Bros.) / 1,175 / -565
  $2,670,000 | +6.7% | $2,272 | $245,136,000 | 13

View the full weekend chart at:  http://boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart

View weekend chart on mobile device at:  http://mobile.boxofficemojo.com/weekend.htm

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Ben Fritz: Audiences set to swoon for 'Valentine's Day' over 'Wolfman,' 'Percy Jackson'

Just a week after romantic tear-jerker "Dear John" scored with a surprisingly strong $30.5-million debut, "Valentine's Day" is poised for a monster opening of about $50 million from Friday through Monday, which should be a strong movie-going day due to the President's Day holiday. Because many people have Monday off, Valentine's Day itself should be a particularly lucrative day for the movie on Sunday.

via latimesblogs.latimes.com

The above is just the money line on "Valentine's Day." Click through for the full rundown on "Wolfman," "Percy Jackson" et al.

David Poland: Weekend Estimate by Klady - Dear Na'vi

Is there more to say?

Hannah Montana The Movie sold more tickets on opening weekend than Dear John.

Oy.

To Paris With Love's opening reminds us just how good Fox's approach on Taken was. And isn't it ironic that the sequel to Morel's first film behind the camera, District B13, also opened this weekend... with a thud? (Magnolia made it nearly impossible to see the film... so I guess they thought it had it coming.)

Decent expansion for Crazy Heart. Sherlock crossed $200m. Ajami and The Last Station showed a little nomination bump on an arthouse scale. An Education and Precious also got small bumps, though they can't be thrilled with their per-screens.

via www.mcnblogs.com

Click through for the weekend box office grid.

Daily Box Office (2/5/2010 Weekend - Estimates)

BOX OFFICE MOJO - DAILY BOX OFFICE

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

February 5-7, 2010

Rank. Movie Title (Distributor) / Theater Count
  Daily Gross | % Change (Last Week) | Total Gross | Days in Release

1. Dear John (Sony / Screen Gems) / 2,969
Fri: est. $13,800,000 | - | est. $13,800,000 | 1
Sat: est. $12,400,000 | - | est. $26,200,000 | 2
Sun: est. $6,200,000 | - | est. $32,400,000 | 3

2. Avatar (Fox) / 3,000
Fri: est. $6,100,000 | -18% | est. $612,593,000 | 50
Sat: est. $11,500,000 | -16.6% | est. $624,093,000 | 51
Sun: est. $6,000,000 | -40.3% | est. $630,093,000 | 52

3. From Paris with Love (Lionsgate) / 2,722
Fri: est. $2,960,000 | - | est. $2,960,000 | 1
Sat: est. $3,790,000 | - | est. $6,750,000 | 2
Sun: est. $1,370,000 | - | est. $8,120,000 | 3

4. Edge of Darkness (Warner Bros.) / 3,066
Fri: est. $2,315,000 | -58.7% | est. $24,407,000 | 8
Sat: est. $3,475,000 | -51.4% | est. $27,882,000 | 9
Sun: est. $1,215,000 | -72.7% | est. $29,097,000 | 10

5. Tooth Fairy (Fox) / 3,218
Fri: est. $1,625,000 | -27.6% | est. $29,458,000 | 15
Sat: est. $3,500,000 | -25.4% | est. $32,958,000 | 16
Sun: est. $1,375,000 | -55.1% | est. $34,333,000 | 17

6. When in Rome (Buena Vista) / 2,456
Fri: est. $2,000,000 | -54% | est. $17,396,000 | 8
Sat: est. $2,600,000 | -50.1% | est. $19,996,000 | 9
Sun: est. $905,000 | -67.6% | est. $20,899,000 | 10

7. The Book of Eli (Warner Bros.) / 2,820
Fri: est. $1,515,000 | -38.7% | est. $78,843,000 | 22
Sat: est. $2,460,000 | -37.2% | est. $81,303,000 | 23
Sun: est. $860,000 | -65.9% | est. $82,163,000 | 24

8. Crazy Heart (Fox Searchlight) / 819
Fri: est. $1,080,000 | +90.7% | est. $8,618,000 | 52
Sat: est. $1,815,000 | +71.3% | est. $10,433,000 | 53
Sun: est. $755,000 | +10.5% | est. $11,188,000 | 54

9. Legion (Sony / Screen Gems) / 2,339
Fri: est. $1,070,000 | -47.2% | est. $32,348,000 | 15
Sat: est. $1,700,000 | -44.8% | est. $34,048,000 | 16
Sun: est. $630,000 | -69.5% | est. $34,678,000 | 17

10. Sherlock Holmes (Warner Bros.) / 1,805
Fri: est. $785,000 | -35.4% | est. $199,734,000 | 43
Sat: est. $1,365,000 | -35% | est. $201,099,000 | 44
Sun: est. $480,000 | -60% | est. $201,579,000 | 45

11. The Blind Side (Warner Bros.) / 1,740
Fri: est. $775,000 | -2.9% | est. $239,801,000 | 78
Sat: est. $1,350,000 | -6.1% | est. $241,151,000 | 79
Sun: est. $475,000 | -39.5% | est. $241,626,000 | 80

12. Alvin and the Chipmunks 2 (Fox) / 1,965
Fri: est. $435,000 | -46.3% | est. $210,465,000 | 45
Sat: est. $1,165,000 | -39.1% | est. $211,630,000 | 46
Sun: est. $600,000 | -52.9% | est. $212,230,000 | 47

View the full daily chart at:  http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/

View daily chart on mobile device at:  http://mobile.boxofficemojo.com/daily.htm

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Ben Fritz: 'Dear John' steals first place from 'Avatar' while 'From Paris With Love' flops

In the first major box office shocker of 2010, tearjerker "Dear John" displaced "Avatar" from the top of the chart with  a very strong $32.4 million opening in the U.S. and Canada, according to an estimate from distributor Sony Pictures.

James Cameron's 3-D spectacle "Avatar" took in $23.6 million, bringing its domestic total to $630.1 million. "Avatar" ticket sales were down 25% on its eighth weekend. That's the science-fiction blockbuster's second-highest decline since it launched, demonstrating that it was affected by the new competition.

Pre-release surveys had indicated that "Dear John," Hollywood's latest adaptation of a Nicholas Sparks novel, would open to a little more than $20 million. Its surprising strength is another sign of the power of the young female audience, which last year drove hits such as "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" and "Hannah Montana: The Movie." Its audience was 84% female, and 64% were younger than 21, according to exit polls.

via latimesblogs.latimes.com

I'll have boxofficemojo.com's Daily Estimates up later today, but click through for Ben Fritz's roundup.

Fritz: 'Dear John' likely to come close but not quite dethrone 'Avatar'

After holding the top spot for seven consecutive weeks, it looks as if "Avatar" will reign one final time over Super Bowl weekend.

Despite rising interest among its core audience of teenage and twentysomething females, the romantic tearjerker "Dear John" appears likely to open just shy of director James Cameron's blockbuster, which looks to be No. 1 at the box office for the eighth weekend in a row.

According to people who have seen pre-release polling of moviegoers, "Dear John" is on track to sell a little more than $20 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada. That's a solid start given that financier Relativity Media paid about $25 million to produce the film, which Sony Pictures is releasing in exchange for a distribution fee.

via latimesblogs.latimes.com

Last box office record falls to Avatar

Per BoxOfficeMojo.com and a bunch of other sources, "It's official. 'Avatar' surpassed 'Titanic's gross on Tuesday to become the highest-grossing picture of all time. 'Avatar's total stands at $601.1 million, edging out 'Titanic's $600.8 million. Raking in $2.7 million on Tuesday, 'Avatar' raced past the $600 million mark in just 47 days, while 'Titanic' took 252 days to hit the milestone."

Got a chance to see it again last night, this time in 2D at the WGA's theater, followed by a Q&A session with Cameron.  Having seen it in all 3 formats now, I can say that I think regular 3D is the best experience.

Poland: Weekend Box Office by Klady - A7/Darkness 17

A stat that I find a bit surprising is that Avatar is still running, in Weekend 7, a few million for the weekend ahead of Titanic domestically, which is the long legs king of the world. Titanic's Weekend 8 was $23 million and change... so... we'll see...

The re-release of The Hurt Locker is... not happening. Another mistake. I will be the first one to cheer if the movie wins Best Picture, but it's a shame that Summit found so many different ways for audiences not to experience this movie on a big screen. And of course, it's not just Summit's fault. The rest of the industry gave the film a collective pass when distribution rights were on the line. Searchlight could be up to win their second Best Picture in a row... and Fox overall would be in a virtual can't-lose situation.

The real story, when all is said and done, will be that two movies that really chose NOT to compete for Best Picture in an aggressive way are the two front-runners at this point. Yes, both companies have bought ads and will buy more. But for the most part, both Summit and Fox have let the movies themselves do almost all the heavy lifting.

via www.mcnblogs.com