Life On The Bubble

Ben Fritz (LA Times): Five new movies open, but 'Expendables' may kick butt again

"The Expendables," directed by and starring Sylvester Stallone, has the best chance to be No. 1 for the second weekend in a row, said people who have seen surveys of potential moviegoers. The aging-mercenaries tale should sell between $15 million and $17 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada, down a little more than half from its strong opening weekend. Through Wednesday it has grossed a total of $45.7 million.

The family movie "Nanny McPhee Returns" has a shot at topping "Expendables," but is more likely to fall just short and open to a little less than $15 million.

The remaining lineup -- "Lottery Ticket," "Vampires Suck," "Piranha 3D," and "The Switch" -- are all likely to make even less of a splash, with debuts ranging from $7 million to $13 million apiece.

via latimesblogs.latimes.com

More box office projections (weekend of July 23, 2010)

Here are the NRG and MarketCast box office predictions for the weekend.

 

SALT

(3,000 theaters)

NRG: $36-$39M

MC: $34-36M

 

RAMONA AND BEEZUS

(1,400 theaters)

NRG: $8-$10M

MC: $5.5-7.5M

 

PAST OPENERS

INCEPTION

(3,790 theaters)

NRG: $36.25M-$39.25M

 

DESPICABLE ME

(3,500 theaters)

NRG: $20.25M-$22.25M

 

SORCERER'S APPRENTICE

(3,500 theaters)

NRG: $8.75M-$10.75M

Ben Fritz (LA Times): 'Inception' opens big; 'Sorcerer's Apprentice' fails to cast a spell

A risky bet on an original and sophisticated adult thriller paid off at the box office this weekend, while an attempt to create a new franchise flopped.

"Inception," which was marketed in large part on the appeal of "Dark Knight" director Christopher Nolan, opened to a strong $60.4 million, according to studio estimates, driven by positive reviews and audience word-of-mouth. But audiences thoroughly rejected Walt Disney Studios' new live-action version of "The Sorcerer's Apprentice," starring Nicolas Cage, which collected just $17.4 million for the weekend and $24.5 million since it opened Wednesday.

In particularly good news for the backers of "Inception," which was made by Warner Bros. and Legendary Pictures for a hefty $160 million, ticket sales on Friday were virtually even at $21.6 million, even though Friday grosses were boosted by $3 million from midnight shows among Nolan's ardent fans who wanted to see the picture right away. That's a sign of strong word-of-mouth.

via latimesblogs.latimes.com

Click through for Ben Fritz's usual excellent box office analysis.

Weekend Box Office (July 16-18, 2010, per Variety)

Here are the weekend's numbers, per Variety.com:

1. Inception (Warner Bros.)
  Theaters: 3,792
  $60,400,000

2. Despicable Me (Universal)
 3,501
 $32,700,000

3. The Sorcerer's Apprentice (Disney)
 3,504
 $17,400,000

4.
 The Twilight Saga: Eclipse (Summit Entertainment )
 4,001
 $13,500,000

5. Toy Story 3 (Disney)
 3,177
 $11,700,000

6. Grown Ups (Sony)
 3,074
 $10,000,000

7. The Last Airbender (Paramount )
 2,805
 $7,500,000

8. Predators (20th Century Fox)
 2,669
 $6,800,000

9. Knight and Day (20th Century Fox)
 1,925
 $3,700,000

10. The Karate Kid (Sony)
 1,532
 $2,200,000

Ben Fritz (LA Times): 'Despicable Me' eclipses 'Twilight,' and 'Predators' has good first hunt [Updated]

"Despicable Me" had a sensational debut at the box office, taking in a studio-estimated $60.1 million and easily surpassing the second weekend of "The Twilight Saga: Eclipse," which dropped 49% to $33.4 million and is playing virtually even with the last "Twilight" movie, "New Moon."

"Predators," the other newbie at the box office this weekend, opened to $25.3 million, a strong start given its modest budget.

But "Despicable Me" was the big box-office news, as the 3-D movie far outpaced expectations based on pre-release surveys and marked a fantastic start for Universal Pictures in the competitive animated family film business. It was the biggest-ever opening for an original animated movie not made by Pixar or DreamWorks Animation, putting Universal's Illumination Entertainment family films unit among the top players in its space.

via latimesblogs.latimes.com

Click through for Ben Fritz's rundown.

Ben Fritz (LA Times): 'Twilight Saga: Eclipse' is huge but just short of 'New Moon'; 'Airbender' has solid start [updated]

The new "Twilight" is a massive success by any yardstick except for the last "Twilight."

Despite being the first movie in the vampire romance saga to play in the summer and on Imax screens, which carry a ticket-price surcharge, "The Twilight Saga: Eclipse" collected $3.6 million less than last November's "The Twilight Saga: New Moon" in its first six days in theaters.

"Eclipse" grossed $175.3 million, according to an estimate from distributor Summit Entertainment, from its opening on Wednesday through Monday (July 5 being a national holiday). That makes it the most successful first six days of any film that’s opened so far in 2010 and another hugely profitable "Twilight" picture for Summit. "Eclipse" cost about $68 million to produce. "Eclipse" cost about $68 million to produce.

Precise comparisons are tough since "New Moon" opened on a Friday and the new film on a Wednesday, but the biggest difference between them seemed to come on Saturday. That was "Eclipse's" fourth day in theaters, and it grossed $23.9 million; it was the second day in theaters for "New Moon," which grossed $42.3 million. The differences between the two movies on other days were smaller.

via latimesblogs.latimes.com

Friday Box Office (deadline.com): ‘Eclipse’ $28.6M For New Cume Of $121.3M, ‘The Last Airbender’ $16.7M, ‘Toy Story 3′ $10.5M

FRIDAY PM/SATURDAY AM: Here's the Top 10:

1. Newcomer The Twilight Saga: Eclipse looks like $28.6M Friday after making $24.2M Thursday and opening to $68.5M Wednesday from 4,468 dates for a new cume of $121.3M. That could be $80.2M for the 3-day weekend, and $106.1M for the 4-day July Fourth Holiday with a total of $178M for the full 6-day release since Wednesday. However, one rival studio thinks Eclipse can get to a record-shattering $187M for the 6-day holiday. Yowza! That would put the pic well ahead of Spider-Man 2 which holds the July 4th holiday record with $180M. Overseas, Summit says Eclipse has opened to $19M from 22 territories.

2. Paramount has been spending all morning revising newwcomer The Last Airbender's grosses upwards because of its better-than-expected performance at the domestic box office. M Night Shyamalan's 3D epic opened to $16M Thursday from 3,169 theaters, including the $3 million from its midnight shows, and now added another $16.7M Friday. Helped by higher 3D ticket prices, the pic based on the Nickelodeon animated TV series should be on its way to $57M for the 4-day holiday and a cume of $74M by end of Monday and definitely 2nd place.

3. Starting its third week is Disney's Toy Story 3 with $10.5 Friday from 4,028 plays. That's probably a 3D-aided $48M for the 4-day holiday weekend to pass $300M. The pic's cume after 18 days should reach a whopping $306M.

via www.deadline.com

Ben Fritz (LA Times: 'Eclipse' breaks 'New Moon' record for midnight ticket sales with more than $30m

Hard-core "Twilight" fans have set another box office record.

"Eclipse," the third movie based on the best-selling vampire romance novels, sold more than $30 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada Tuesday night in shows that started at or soon after midnight. Distributor Summit Entertainment is still calculating the exact total, a spokesman said.

The previous record for midnight screening ticket sales of $26.3 million was set by the last "Twilight" movie, "New Moon," in November 2009.

via latimesblogs.latimes.com

TheWrap.com: 'Eclipse' Looks to Scare Up at Least $150M

With the ink still damp on $709.7 million of worldwide box-office gross from “Twilight Saga: New Moon,” Summit Entertainment well debut part-three franchise “Twilight” installment “Eclipse” into 4,408 engagements Wednesday, many of them offering midnight engagements.

With that theater count including 193 IMAX locations, Summit Entertainment officials are moving “Twilight” out of November for the first time, giving the film access to its young-female core demographic at a time when its constituents are out of school.

Conservative forecasts predict the PG-13-rated film will gross $150 million domestically in its first six days of release, spanning through the holiday weekend. That would usurp the $142.8 million three-day opening for “New Moon” last November.

“Eclipse,” which returns the core cast of Kristen Stewart, Robert Pattinson and Taylor Lautner, will also debut in 41 foreign territories this weekend.

via www.thewrap.com

Ben Fritz (LA Times): 'Toy Story 3' tops solid 'Grown Ups,' soft 'Knight and Day'

It was a bad weekend for Tom Cruise at the box office, a good one for Adam Sandler, Chris Rock and Kevin James, and another great one for Pixar Animation Studios.

"Toy Story 3" topped the box office for the second weekend in a row, taking in a studio-estimated $59 million in the U.S. and Canada, well ahead of the healthy $41-million opening for Sandler's comedy "Grown Ups" and the tepid $20.5-million start for the Cruise-Cameron Diaz action comedy "Knight and Day."

via latimesblogs.latimes.com

Click through for the rest of Ben Fritz's analysis of the early weekend box office estimates.

Ben Fritz (LA Times): 'Toy Story' to rule over solid 'Grown Ups,' struggling 'Knight and Day'

"Toy Story 3" will rule the box office playground again this weekend as the ensemble comedy "Grown Ups" is set for a healthy start and the Tom Cruise action comedy "Knight and  Day" is looking like a dud.

Following its strong $109-million opening last weekend, Pixar Animation Studios' third "Toy Story" installment rang up phenomenal weekday ticket sales, bringing its total domestic gross to $154.5 million on Wednesday. Given its box office momentum -- stronger than for any previous Pixar feature -- "Toy Story 3" is likely to collect more than $60 million in the U.S. and Canada this weekend, bringing its total take to more than $200 million in just 10 days.

via latimesblogs.latimes.com

Click through for the rest of the weekend projections.

Ben Fritz (LA Times): 'Toy Story 3' tops box office; 'Jonah Hex' plays to tumbleweeds [Updated]

Boosted by universally positive reviews and higher 3-D ticket prices, "Toy Story 3" posted the biggest opening ever for a Pixar movie and the best of summer 2010, while Western comic-book adaptation "Jonah Hex" was a major box-office misfire

"Toy Story 3" sold $109 million in tickets in the U.S. and Canada this weekend, according to an estimate from distributor Walt Disney Pictures. That's the biggest opening ever for a Pixar movie, even accounting for ticket-price inflation, signifying huge interest in seeing the film.

Indeed, though its opening is behind that of 2007's "Shrek the Third," which started with $122.5 million and virtually tied with 2004's "Shrek 2," "Toy Story 3" had the biggest opening-day gross of any animated movie, collecting $41 million on Friday.

via latimesblogs.latimes.com

Ben Fritz (LA Times): 'Toy Story 3' appears blessed, 'Jonah Hex' cursed

The soft summer box office is poised to get a big boost from "Toy Story 3" this weekend.

People who have seen pre-release surveys say that "Toy Story 3" is certain to have the biggest opening for a movie from Pixar Animation Studios, beating 2004's "The Incredibles," which started with $70.4 million in the U.S. and Canada.

Thanks to strong interest among all audience segments, as well as 3-D premium ticket prices, the movie could be Pixar's first $100-million-plus opening if pre-release tracking is on target.

via latimesblogs.latimes.com

Click through for details on Jonah Hex (projection: under $10m opening) and Karate Kid (projection: 2nd place behind Toy Story 3).

TheWrap.com: Media Derivatives Gets Go-Ahead for Movie Futures Trading

A federal agency has given the go-ahead to  Chicago-based Media Derivatives to begin trading futures based on the box-office performance of movies.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission on Monday announced that it has "found that the terms and conditions of the proposed Weekend Motion Picture Revenue futures and options contracts submitted by Media Derivatives, Inc. (MDEX) do not violate the Commodity Exchange Act or the Commission’s Regulations thereunder."

The trading was approved with a 3-2 vote.

With approval in hand, Media Derivatives expects to begin this winter trading contracts tied to box office receipts on the first weekend of a movie’s release in wide distribution, with futures contracts and options going on sale a month before the movie comes out.

The commission must announce its go/no-go decision on a second request, by Cantor Fitzgerald, to trade movie futures by June 28.

via www.thewrap.com

I still can't decide whether this is a big deal for the business itself or not. I'm excited personally, though -- www.itsonthegrid.com should be a pretty valuable resource to box office commodities traders.

Weekend Box Office: Projections vs Results

Last Friday marked the end of the personal and professional logistical stuff that's been keeping me from posting regularly here.  As you can see from the posts I did earlier tonight, I caught up with a couple of weeks' worth of deadline.com posts as the LA Times' Company Town and 24 Frames blogs.  One thing I missed on Thursday was this weekend's box office projections, and since one of the weekend's new releases overperformed dramatically (congratulations to everyone at Overbrook, by the way), I thought kick off a new feature here comparing the weekend's projections (tracking-based predictions of the weekend's box office numbers) with the results (box office estimates based on Friday and Saturday actuals).  

Weekend Projections:

Karate Kid (3,663 theaters):  $37.0M-$41.0M

The A-Team (3,498 theaters):  $27.0M-$31.0M

Shrek: The Final Chapter (4,390 theaters):  $13.0M-$15.0M

Get Him to the Greek (2,700 theaters):  $10.5M-$12.5M

Killers (2,860 theaters):  $7.0M-$9.0M

Prince of Persia (3,650 theaters):  $6.0M-$8.0M

Marmaduke (3,210 theaters):  $6.0M-$8.0M

Sex and the City 2 (3,450 theaters):  $5.75M-$7.75M

Iron Man 2 (3,010 theaters):  $3.5M-$5.5M

Robin Hood (2,600 theaters):  $2.25M-$3.25M

Splice (2,450 theaters):  $2.25M-$3.25M

Letters to Juliet (1,960 theaters):  $1.25M-$2.25M

 

Weekend Estimates (click here for Ben Fritz's Sunday am article):

1. "The Karate Kid" (Sony): Opened to $56 million.

2. "The A-Team" (Fox/Dune): Opened to $26 million. $15 million in 35 foreign markets.

3. "Shrek Forever After" (DreamWorks Animation/Paramount): $15.8 million, down 38% on its fourth weekend. $4.3 million overseas in 19 foreign markets. Domestic total: $210.1 million. International total: $74.3 million.

4. "Get Him to the Greek" (Universal/Relativity/Spyglass): $10.1 million on its second weekend, down 43%. Domestic total: $36.5 million.

5. "Killers" (Lionsgate): $8.2 million, down 48% on its second weekend. Domestic total: $30.7 million.

6. "Prince of Persia" (Disney): $6.6 million on its third weekend, down 53%. $19.7 million overseas in 48 foreign markets. Domestic total: $72.3 million. International total: $190.3 million.

7. "Marmaduke" (Fox/New Regency): $6 million on its second weekend, down 48%. $2.2 million in 21 foreign markets. Domestic total: $22.3 million. International total: $8.4 million.

8. "Sex and the City 2" (Warner Bros./New Line/Village Roadshow): $5.5 million on its third weekend, down 55%. $23.7 million in 56 foreign markets. Domestic total: $84.7 million. International total: $131.7 million.

9. "Iron Man 2" (Marvel/Paramount): $4.6 million on its sixth weekend, down 43%. $5.3 million in 62 foreign markets. Domestic total: $299.3 million. International total $295 million.

10. "Splice" (Dark Castle/Warner Bros.): $2.9 million on its second weekend, down 61%. Domestic total: $13.1 million.

Ben Fritz (LA Times): 'Greek' is first among newbies but 'Shrek' is still on top

Despite competition from a quartet of new films, "Shrek Forever After" stayed at No. 1 for the third weekend in a row, selling a studio-estimated $25.3 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada.

Of the rookies, comedy "Get Him to the Greek" performed best, opening to a pretty good $17.4 million. Distributor Universal Pictures and co-financiers Relativity Media and Spyglass Entertainment are hopeful that "Greek," which stars Jonah Hill, Russell Brand and Sean "Diddy" Combs, will hold on very well for the next few weeks, as is common for R-rated comedies. "Forgetting Sarah Marshall," which was also directed by Nicholas Stoller, opened to a similar $17.7 million in 2008 and ended up with a healthy final gross of $63.2 million.

"Greek" cost about $40 million to produce.

Lionsgate's "Killers," a big risk for the small studio, turned out to be a modest disappointment, opening to $16.1 million. Based on guidance provided to investors by the Santa Monica studio, that opening likely means that "Killers," an action comedy starring Ashton Kutcher and Katherine Heigl, will be a slight money loser.

via latimesblogs.latimes.com

Click through for the rest of the weekend's estimates and Ben Fritz's usual excellent reportage.

Ben Fritz (LA Times): 'Shrek' wins weekend as 'Sex' disappoints and 'Persia' flops | Company Town | Los Angeles Times

In the battle of the sexes at the box office over Memorial Day weekend, both lost out to a big green ogre.

"Sex and the City 2," which had been expected to draw big crowds of women this weekend, ended up grossing less in five days than the first "Sex and the City" film did in its first three, while male-skewing video-game adaptation "Prince of Persia" landed with a thud as the biggest flop of the summer so far.

"Shrek Forever After" easily topped the box office chart, dropping a relatively modest 39% on its second weekend as it sold a studio-estimated $55.7 million in tickets from Friday through Monday in the U.S. and Canada. That's significantly better than the 56% drop for "Shrek the Third" on Memorial Day weekend in 2007. However, after the new film's disappointing $70-million start, it's still well behind its predecessor, which had collected $217.3 million by Memorial Day. DreamWorks Animation's "Shrek Forever After," distributed by Paramount Pictures, has taken in $145.5 million domestically so far.

"Sex and the City 2" had been poised to win the weekend based on pre-release polling. Perhaps hurt by uniformly awful reviews, however, it came in lower than expected, grossing $37.1 million for the four-day holiday weekend and $51.4 million including its opening Thursday. That's not bad given its production budget of about $95 million, co-financed by Warner Bros.' New Line Cinema unit and Village Roadshow Pictures. However, it's less than the $57 million that the first movie based on the long-running HBO series starring Sarah Jessica Parker made on its opening three-day weekend in 2008.

Walt Disney Studios' big-budget "Prince of Persia," which starred Jake Gyllenhaal, opened to $37.8 million from Friday through Monday, a dismal start given its huge budget of $200 million.

 "Persia," which was produced by Jerry Bruckheimer, did better internationally, though it was far from a huge hit. After opening to $18 million in 19 foreign countries the previous weekend, the action-adventure played in every major foreign country this weekend and took in a solid $59 million through Sunday.

via latimesblogs.latimes.com

I usually don't clip the bulk of the article when I reblog, but this one warranted it. Click through for SATC2's and Shrek 4's foreign estimates.

Ben has another post today that discusses the dismal Memorial Day Weekend box office in general -- it's the worst in 8 years for revenue and 17 for attendance. http://lat.ms/aKAnP0

Ben Fritz (LA Times): 'Sex and the City' ladies to rule over 'Prince of Persia'

Just four weeks into the crucial summer movie season, Hollywood is bracing for what could be its third consecutive big-budget disappointment.

Walt Disney Studios' big-screen video-game adaptation "Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time," starring Jake Gyllenhaal, is unlikely to open in first or even second place over the lucrative Memorial Day holiday weekend, according to people who have seen pre-release audience surveys. It comes two weeks after a soft launch for Universal Pictures' costly epic "Robin Hood" and one week after a much-lower-than-expected start for DreamWorks Animation's' "Shrek Forever After."

Expected to follow in the footsteps of its 2008 surprise hit predecessor, "Sex and the City 2" should rule the box office roost, the people said, while "Shrek" is poised to land as runner-up on its second weekend.

The three films are expected to divide up the moviegoing audience with women most interested in "Sex and the City," men in "Prince of Persia," and families in "Shrek."

It appears that "Persia" won't draw enough men, however, to make good on its hefty production budget of about $200 million. Several Hollywood executives said the movie was likely to sell $35 million to $40 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada over the four-day holiday weekend from Friday through Monday.

That's right in line with the soft $36-million domestic opening for "Robin Hood," which had a similarly large production cost.

via latimesblogs.latimes.com

Lots to talk about this weekend -- click through for the rest of Ben Fritz's usual excellent box office projection reporting, including the projections for SATC2.

Ben Fritz (LA Times): 'Shrek' falls short on fourth go-round while 'MacGruber' bombs

"Shrek" may have overstayed his welcome on the big screen.

"Shrek Forever After," the fourth and final installment in the most successful animated series of all time, sold $71.3 million worth of tickets in the U.S. and Canada this weekend, according to an estimate from distributor Paramount Pictures.

That's a 41% drop from the $121.6-million debut of "Shrek the Third" on the same weekend in 2007 and significantly below even the most conservative pre-release estimates for the new film's opening weekend.

The decline in revenue significantly understates the drop in attendance, however, as "Forever After" is the first "Shrek" movie to play in digital 3-D, which means the majority of tickets carried a surcharge of about $3 on top of normal price inflation over the last three years.

Still, "Shrek Forever After," which cost DreamWorks Animation about $165 million to produce, will probably hold on well in the coming weeks and have a relatively strong performance over the Memorial Day holiday weekend, as it will be the only family film and only 3-D film in theaters. Moviegoers who saw the new "Shrek" movie gave it an average grade of A, according to market research firm CinemaScore, up from a B+ for the third installment, which means word-of-mouth should be very healthy.

But it's unlikely to end up a blockbuster on the same scale as "Shrek the Third," which had a final domestic gross of $323 million, or 2004's "Shrek 2," which finished its run with $422 million.

via latimesblogs.latimes.com

Click through for the full weekend box office rundown. And here's a link to Ben Fritz's follow up box office analysis post:

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/entertainmentnewsbuzz/2010/05/shrek-forever-after-draws-less-than-half-as-many-moviegoers-as-shrek-the-third.html

Ben Fritz (LA Times): 'Robin Hood' far from a certain bull's-eye

It's never a great sign when a big-budget summer event film is poised to open No. 2 at the box office.

But director Ridley Scott's version of "Robin Hood" starring Russell Crowe has been a challenge for distributor Universal Pictures, given its high cost, serious tone and apparent lack of appeal to the young moviegoers who usually drive big openings.

Hollywood executives who have seen pre-release polling of potential moviegoers expect the film to open between $40 million and $45 million in the U.S. and Canada. That would put it behind "Iron Man 2," which should take in roughly $60 million on its second weekend after launching with a very strong $128.1 million.

via latimesblogs.latimes.com