I noticed the link FilmNewsBriefs.com included this morning in its post about the August 2010 Spec Market Roundup points to the main LOTB page rather than to the report itself. So two quick things: If you want to get on the list to receive the report when it publishes every other Friday, sign up using the form to the right (don't worry, I respect your privacy). And second, here's a link to the PDF of the Roundup: http://bit.ly/dgVcsn
As you'll see, the intro is a bit off-topic -- as I was compiling the Roundup last week, I couldn't stop thinking about the prospect of AOL pursuing a proper filmed entertainment content strategy, and suddenly I'd written a mini-rant. As promised at the end of the intro, below is my five-point take on how AOL can make itself relevant again. I'm not going to spend any more time dissecting why it makes sense for AOL to strategize around TV-style original programming (it does), just how I think they should go about it.
Focus on what works (i.e., professionally produced, primetime network TV-style programming).
As AOL spools up its filmed entertainment venture, they're going to be tempted to go after quantity at the expense of quality, since their current frame of reference (not to mention their "print" content strategy) is all about pageviews. That approach would doom this initiative from the start; I think the company should ignore supershortform (under 5 minutes) and user-generated content altogether.
Sure, the odd Justin Bieber video can go viral and generate 175 million views, but you can't build a programming strategy around it. (Unless you do a Justin Bieber series. Which would be pretty smart, actually; see below.) Successful networks don't just aggregate eyeballs, they cultivate passionate viewers who return to their favorite shows week after week and talk about them at every opportunity. By focusing on good stories, well told, AOL will be able to build a reliable, consistent audience around its programming.
Hire a team of development pros (and empower them).
Of course, the whole "good stories, well told" thing is far easier said than done. And it's going to be impossible if AOL doesn't hire development executives who are currently in the TV packaging trenches. As I wrote in my Roundup, Jim Wiatt's a smart, connected guy, but he hasn't operated at that level in a long, long time. I have my doubts that he even knows who's getting it done on a day-to-day basis in the TV business; when you interact exclusively with network and studio heads, you lose track of who's even on the roster below the EVP's.
Regardless, ultra high level strategic advice is all well and good, but it's pretty obvious that AOL needs to hire a czar of original programming, someone who's currently high enough in the TV development food chain to have been pulling the trigger for a bit, but not so high that she has started spending more time on internal politics than development. I'd start by looking at VPs at the broadcast and cable networks, with an eye out in particular for someone with a reputation for good taste, demonstrably strong relationships all over town and an entrepreneurial streak.
Once the ideal candidate has been poached, AOL's czar is going to need (at the very least):
- Greenlight authority (with oversight, obviously, but the czar needs to be able to go with her gut);
- A small, hand-picked team of seasoned executives (no one can do that job solo);
- To be based in Los Angeles (because this is where the bulk of the talent is);
- A mid-term definition of success (Internet time is off the table; this initiative is going to take at least two and probably three or four years to gain traction); and
- A big enough development and production budget to make Hollywood take the venture seriously (this project will require the town's buy-in from the outset).
Don't just swing for the fences.
It would be foolish to ignore the star-driven nature of the entertainment business, and I think the czar should make a splashy deal or two at the outset in the time-honored tradition of all new studio heads. (For example, a non-scripted Justin Bieber show, plus big deals with a couple of hallowed TV names like Lorre, Whedon, Cowell and Burnett.) That said, you can't hit a grand slam if you don't have runners on the bases. So in addition to the headline-grabbers, AOL should make a series of smart (read: inexpensive) deals with seasoned TV writers and new-comers alike and give them an unprecedented amount of creative freedom in exchange for the inevitable small production budgets and limited series orders. Remember, though: Quality, not quantity. For reference, keep in mind the many cable networks that have successfully reinvented themselves over the past decade (think FX and Showtime, just to name two).
Build apps (and give them away).
By this point AOL will have jumped into the TV business with both feet, the entertainment industry as a whole will be competing to do business with it, and the company will face another temptation: Locking that great new content inside the AOL website. One would think they'd have learned their "walled garden" lesson a while back, but Apple's version is so successful that AOL will almost certainly think about reinstating it. I think this would be a fatal mistake; AOL is not Apple, and shouldn't try to be. iTunes is a platform, first and foremost; AOL needs to be a content provider first and a distributor second.
Rather than forcing people to view AOL content at AOL.com, the much smarter play would be to make that content as available as possible (short of torrents): In addition to creating a dedicated environment for their shows inside AOL, the company should do deals with iTunes, Google TV, Facebook, Netflix, Hulu, on-demand cable and satellite and so on. Ultimately, AOL's venture should be a library play, not an advertising play.
Further, apps are here to stay -- AOL should get busy building a set of intuitive and beautiful ones, and then make them free on iTunes and the Android Market (and the Blackberry's AppWorld, assuming RIM gets its act together in the next year). They should steal the Netflix model, in other words.
Get started. Immediately.
And that's basically my prescription. Simple, right? At its core, the strategy has two prongs:
- Embrace TV, stem to stern.
- Go big or go home.
As I pointed out in the Roundup, AOL is better positioned than most of its competitors to take advantage of this opportunity. But they'll need to act quickly; Microsoft is almost as well positioned, and they've shown their willingness and ability to change strategic course dramatically. I think we're at as big an inflection point for online content as Microsoft was in 1995 when it started orienting the entire company around the Internet. And I think it's not hyperbole to say the future of AOL could hinge on its strategies and tactics in this space over the next year or so.
In any case, I'm looking forward to hearing what AOL's CEO, Tim Armstrong, has to say on the subject next week at TheWrap.com's entertainment and media conference, TheGrill. If you care about this stuff and you're not planning to go, you should -- the speaker line up is impressive. Click here to check it out.
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